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2011 Outlook

I’m a little late in my annual new years outlook blog post, but better late than never!

As you might have noticed, 2011 promises to be full of turbulence, at least the first two quarters. Economies have not recovered enough and political turbulence is rampant. This past month is a sneak preview of what else might be heading towards us:

  • Assassination of Governor in Pakistan who spoke out against absurd religious blasphemy law
  • Assassination attempt of Congresswoman Gifford in USA
  • Tunisian Jasmine Revolution removed a corrupt dictator of 20+ years. The problem with spontaneous bottom up revolutions is that there is no identified replacement leader.
  • Egypt in flames. No matter how this ends, there will be many people who will be hurt/killed/murdered/arrested/tortured by the end of it.
  • Yemen heating up. Their leader has been in power for more than 30 years and the population has been protesting to remove the president…
  • Jordan has been seeing protests for 3 weeks running demanding the removal of the prime minister
  • Algerian protests have resulted in a potential reshuffling of its Cabinet
  • Haiti still a mess after 1 year. Reconstruction has not happened in any real way, cholera is rampant and the current ruling party does not want to admit defeat in the flawed elections. Baby Doc is back (and arrested) and Aristide would like to come back too!
  • Southern Sudan will most likely split away from the North (referendum results are not official yet) but what happens after when the refugees stream in and country has to be run?
  • Terrorist attack on Moscow airport in Russia
  • And of course the near weekly suicide attacks on innocent civilians continue in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan

Is there anything to look forward to? Not really in the next 6 months. Hold tight to your sanity, your money, stand up for justice, be part of the solution against violent extremism and figure out how you will participate on the political front. As Martin Niemoller famously said:

First they came for the communists,
and I didn’t speak out because I wasn’t a communist.
Then they came for the trade unionists,
and I didn’t speak out because I wasn’t a trade unionist.
Then they came for the Jews,
and I didn’t speak out because I wasn’t a Jew.
Then they came for me
and there was no one left to speak out for me.

Let’s see what happens after!

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French Colony

French Colony is a Christian slum in the heart of Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan.

  • Photo, top left: French Colony, shanty town in Pakistan
  • Photo, bottom left: UP Church in French Colony
  • Photo, right: French Colony is built on a garbage dump

2010 12 Pakistan

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Costco or Cosco?

The difference of the letter “T”, several continents apart!

CoscoCostco

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Practical Ways to Help Flood Victims in Pakistan

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The first deaths due to hunger have been reported in Pakistan. People are living in squalor in camps that are being moved as the waters are encroaching further inland. So how will you help?

The needs are as follows in order of priority: saving lives, water, food, shelter, clothing.

Listed below are some practical do and don’ts based on interviews and reports coming in from people I know on the ground:

  • DO send money through reputable sources. Avoid the “accounting challenged” institutions. Some trustworthy organizations (and it is not limited to these):
  • Do NOT send food. People are asking for basic dry ingredients like rice, flour and lentils. They do not want meat as it is perishable. They do NOT want canned food which they have never eaten before (and they do not have can openers either!). Canned food is thrown, and especially if it is coming from outside Pakistan. People do NOT trust processed food coming from outside Pakistan.
    • DO send money so NGOs on the ground can provide food
    • Do send money so NGOs on the ground can provide cooking utensils for the survivors
    • If you are local then sponsor food being cooked on-site at the camps
  • Do NOT send bottled water. People have never used bottled water before and do not trust it. Truckloads of bottled water have been sent back because the victims do not want it.
    • DO send money so relief workers on the ground can provide water filtration tablets and filtration systems for the people
  • Do NOT send clothes from outside Pakistan. People there ONLY wear shalwar kameez. There is only a teeny tiny fraction of men who would consider wearing trousers. Everything else is useless and gets thrown.
    • DO send money so clothes can be bought for the people who have nothing left except the clothes on their backs. Winter will be here in a few short months and the need will become urgent
  • Do NOT send medicine unless you are coordinating with some organization on the ground that knows exactly what is the need for that particular location.
    • DO send money so local doctors, hospitals and clinics can provide medical assistance for the growing number of sick.
  • Do NOT send tents. The NGOs on the ground are providing tents locally. Within weeks the Internally Displaced People (IDP) will be encouraged to go back to the homes and rebuild their lives. Then they will need bricks, cement and other building materials. That is most cost effective if it is procured locally. Mud houses will be reconstructed and tarps will be used to make them more water resistant. 
    • DO send money so rebuilding efforts can take place in a few weeks time after the waters recede.
  • DO send money to NGOs who are working on the ground. The reality is that many of them are partnering with each other, and the government to do local need assessments and relief delivery. This is preventing the duplication of resources and allowing for better coverage. The SCALE however is so big that any amount and every amount is needed.
  • DO organize fundraising. Work with an organization on the ground and figure out the cost to sponsor a family or a village for the next 6 months. The victims will need help well into next year so give consistently. Make it a school project or a family project or a community project where you pledge an amount and work towards it. Then follow the progress of those people whom you helped in real terms. Each of us can be instrumental in saving lives without actually being there physically.
  • And last but not least, pray for them. The second wave of flooding is starting. Every province in Pakistan has been impacted, from the north to the south. The rains will continue for several more weeks so many more villages, towns and cities will be flooded. Most dams are reaching their max. Canals and barrages are at capacity and rich feudal land owners do not want to divert water in ways that would save lives but destroy their crops. The people on the ground are being left to fend for themselves. NGOs, the army (and some small government efforts) are working hard to help the common man but the scale is overwhelming.

“This has been a heart-wrenching day for me. I will never forget the destruction and suffering I have witnessed today. In the past, I have witnessed many natural disasters around the world, but nothing like this.”

Ban Ki-Moon, UN Secretary-General

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How Many is 20 Million?

Floods in Pakistan have killed more than 1500 people and displaced 20 million (that’s more than the Asia tsunami and Haiti combined). Cholera cases are being found and the next wave of deaths could conceivably come from disease rather than destruction. flood

With daily monsoon rains that are not abating, and will continue for another month, virtually all dams and barrages that run the length of the country are poised to flood (assuming they have not already flooded).

As standing crops were destroyed, these 20 million mostly rural populations have no means for livelihood for another year. The situation is so bad that Afghan refugees who have been in Pakistan for more than 2 decades are thinking of going back- a warn-torn country is preferable to the current misery!

To get a scale of the numbers, 20 million displaced is the equivalent of:

  • All of New York state- can you imagine the whole state submerged?
  • Pennsylvania + Delaware + Maryland – all three submerged and all residents looking for shelter somewhere?
  • Michigan + Ohio. Where would the people go?
  • Florida state – how will they survive?

For those of you who live in Europe, it would be like losing:

  • Austria + Switzerland. Yes, it is like losing two whole countries- submerged and all their residents looking for food, shelter and the basics of life.
  • Sweden + Norway + Denmark combined.

For those of you who live in other parts of the world, 20 million is :

  • Israel + Jordan + Lebanon combined
  • The native population of Saudi Arabia (excluding expats & foreign workers)
  • The whole population of Sri Lanka
  • All of Chile

We can cut the numbers in many ways but what we always come down to is human misery and very little hope at a mind-boggling scale.

What are YOU doing to help?

OnlyDoorsRemain

* Eye witness accounts mention that whole villages have been swept away and only doorways are left standing

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Success Factors for Terrorism Rehabilitation

The concept of prisoner rehabilitation is not new. Several European countries, in addition to their regular closed prisons, also have open prisons where prisoners are called clients, there is little security, the living conditions are rather luxurious, they can leave the facility for short periods of time and have provisions for conjugal visits. In some of these countries the open prisons also include rehabilitation programs (e.g. Sweden, Finland, Greenland, Denmark, Norway and Netherlands) whereas in others (e.g. UK) open prisons are just prisons with very limited security.

The difference between the rehab programs in the Scandinavian countries and what Saudi Arabia is implementing is the type of person who ends up going to each. The former tends to house the mildest, least dangerous criminals compared to the latter that are working on people who are intent on killing others based on hatred.

Given the “clientele” of the Saudi rehab program it is imperative that they succeed. As reported by CNN, Libya has implemented a similar program, Yemen will be building a facility (US funded) and Pakistan is considering setting one up as well.

Some issues that need to be addressed include (in no particular order):

  • Program length – this was covered in my previous post on the topic
  • Religious legitimacy- Saudi Arabia is considered the home of Islam by many and thus scholars/professors/teachers educated in KSA have enormous respect and legitimacy across the globe. Having Saudi educated instructors at these rehab programs would actually be helpful as a counter-balance to the militant recruiters who carry similar credentials.
  • Funding- this is a tricky issue as the source of the funding impacts the perception of who is driving the initiative and if it respectable. A US funded program to rehab Muslims to not hate the US after being imprisoned by the US for 5-6 years without charges smacks of pandering to US interests alone. However, countries like Yemen and Pakistan do not have sufficient resources to natively implement such programs without external assistance. Maybe President Obama should send money for relief efforts in Gaza and Saudi Arabia can send similar amounts to Yemen and Pakistan instead!
  • Psychological help- many of these militants have developed mental/psychological issues due to the conditions they have endured and what they have seen. Several of them have attempted suicide. This is a huge red-flag as suicide is considered a major sin in Islam and for a person who was willing to die and kill others in the name of religion, it takes an unthinkable amount of despair, hopelessness and depression to want to commit suicide (it is the opposite end of the spectrum from being a martyr).
  • Post-completion assistance. Prisoners at these programs need assistance to be able to succeed in life after they are released:
  1. Education (literacy)
  2. Vocational training
  3. Job placement
  4. Assistance in getting married
  5. On-going support groups and sessions to ensure they do not fall off the bandwagon again.
  • Phased release. This will be important to ensure that when the prisoners are first released they do not flail around trying to find a place for themselves in society. They need to gradually integrate with society, with support instead of being left to fend for themselves. Part of this could include having working villages that can be manned by prisoners (close to being released) where they can live with their families.
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