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Remembering the Pearl Monument in Bahrain

Mar 18th, 2011
by khanserai.
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My last post was at the beginning of the Bahraini protests. Much has transpired since then, namely the conversion of the protests from reform to demanding the removal of the rulers, and the subsequent suppression of the protests through the violent use of force. Saudi troops/tanks/humvees have rolled into Manama and “taken care of matters.” People have been killed (protestors and expats who got caught in the cross-hairs of rage); the Pearl Monument (where the protestors collected) is reported to have been destroyed; a state of emergency has been declared for the next three months.

The truth of the oppression of the Shia population can no longer be denied or ignored by those who want to unequivocally support the Sunni rulers. What makes for even more messy global politics is that Shaikh Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa is not considered a lunatic, unlike the Libyan Gaddafi!  2011 will be the year when the State Department’s Human Rights Report will need major rewrites and careful editing!

For those of you who never saw it, and for those of you who support the protestors, a photo of the monument is attached. This picture was taken in 2008.

P8210134

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MENA on Fire: the Bahraini Story

Feb 17th, 2011
by khanserai.
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While the protests in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Algeria, Libya and Iran are not a surprise, the ones in Bahrain definitely are. Not because the population is not unhappy, (the majority shia are extremely oppressed by the minority sunni ruling class), but because in this constitutional monarchy bordering Saudi Arabia, it is rare that they were not squashed on Day 1. When the current ruler came to power some years ago, he introduced some reforms; however the old guard (his uncles etc) have been extremely resistant to change. As in most cases, it is unfortunately only a matter of time before the new guard becomes the old guard, and reform for the oppressed masses is forgotten.

What distinguishes protests in Bahrain from protests in countries like Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen is the legitimacy of the ruler. In the latter countries, the people are/were demanding that their rightful constitution be restored, and the rulers who had usurped power for decades be removed. In Bahrain, the legality of the form of governance (constitutional monarchy) is not in dispute, the issue is reform for the people. One other wrinkle in this mess is that neighboring salafi/wahabi Saudi Arabia will not be “open” to having a strong Shia influence in Bahraini politics.

The army is already rolling into Pearl Square on day 3 of protests- let’s see which way the wind will blow for this small island country.

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2009 Doom & Gloom Update: Protests in Singapore

Mar 8th, 2009
by khanserai.
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Singapore is famous for its efficiency (thus the nickname Singapore, Inc) and infamous for its harsh penal codes for seemingly minor infractions like littering and spitting. Like any other country it has been shaped by the circumstances under which it was created, and the environment in which it has survived since then.

This “red dot in a sea of green” faced race riots in the 1960s that left several people dead. Neighbors turned on neighbors and most Singaporeans in their late 40s and older remember the time vividly. In the words of many, they would rather live in a controlled but safe country than have more freedom but face uncertainty. This mind-set drives the laws of the country where people are not allowed to congregate in groups larger than 3-4 people without explicit permission. Peaceful protestors like the Fallun Gong have been known to be arrested or removed.

With this backdrop it is shocking to hear that there were protests in Singapore by around 100 unemployed Bangladeshi migrant workers in front of the Ministry of Labor. An indication of the desperation of the workers in the recession plagued economy, Singapore is gearing up for an increase in what it calls “recession crimes“. Several other ASEAN countries like Thailand and Indonesia are also expecting an increase in violence as a result of economic malaise.

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2009 Gloom & Doom Update: Protests in Germany and Bosnia

Feb 28th, 2009
by khanserai.
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As the situation gets worse in Europe, with unemployment rates reaching new highs, the social unrest (see previous posts) is spreading. Germany is the latest in the string of countries that is seeing protests show up. This is important to note as Germany was one of the first countries that had been working on a stimulus plan and has tried hard to off-set the anticipated problems.

Problems in Bosnia are less surprising as this was not a strong economy to start off with. Given their political precariousness (two regional, uncoordinated governments), this is a country that is possibly in line for a change in administration in the style of Iceland or Latvia.

What to watch out for in the upcoming weeks: collapse of airlines. Several airlines are already facing problems as fewer people are flying (Singapore Air, Lufthansa, Swiss Airlines etc)- let us see when some of the weaker players are pushed out of the market or will need to be bailed out.

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2009 Gloom & Doom Update: Protests in Ireland & Latvian Govt Collapse

Feb 22nd, 2009
by khanserai.
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A few weeks ago, there were reports of protests in Latvia, amongst several other countries (see previous post). Now, the Latvian government has resigned. That makes two governments that have collapsed so far, directly attributable to the economy.

There are now protests in Dublin, Ireland about the economy, and strikes are expected soon.

Let’s see how far the ongoing protests in various countries will go. It is a matter of time before people acknowledge that the recession (2 quarters of negative growth or unemployment increase by 1.5% in 12 months) is actually a depression (GDP declines by more than 10%) in certain countries.

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2009 Gloom & Doom Update: France Strikes and Demonstrations

Feb 3rd, 2009
by khanserai.
2 comments

My social unrest post of Jan 27 mentioned that  France, Germany and United Kingdom had avoided demonstrations but my commentary was a tad premature.

It turns out that Jan 29 was a day of mass demonstrations and strikes in France with a 2.5 million turnout in a country of a mere 65 million population (almost 4% of the population was simultaneously out on the streets!). An excerpt from one article states:

Thursday’s day of action throughout France in defence of jobs, the purchasing power of wages and social services, called by the eight major trade union federations, brought an estimated 2.5 million workers and youth onto the streets of some 200 cities and towns. Some small towns reported the largest demonstrations in many years. Workers went on strike in great numbers, as did high school and university students.

Not surprisingly, the French economic stimulus of 26 billion euros ($33.1 billion) was released 3 days later. On the pro side, the stimulus package has been introduced before the country has officially entered a recession; on the con side the size of the package is generally considered insufficient to reverse the general trends. 

Small-scale union supported strikes are also starting in Scotland against hiring of foreign workers.  And most unexpected of all, Obama openly stated that more banks are expected to fail. Such bluntness is not customary for US presidents as they tend to sugarcoat the truth. Or perhaps he is sugarcoating?

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2009 Gloom & Doom Update: Outlook Playing Out- Iceland Govt Collapse

Jan 27th, 2009
by khanserai.
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Remember my previous post on what 2009 will look like?  One of the things I had mentioned was growing unrest in Europe.

Yesterday, Iceland’s government collapsed and there are demonstrations across Europe. Spain, Greece, Lithuania, Latvia and Iceland have all seen protests. France, Germany and United Kingdom have been spared the demonstrations- they are also countries that have invested the most in stimulus packages.

As a reminder of what I had said:

2009 will be a year of despair for many.

The upcoming year is going to be hard on many people. The global financial situation is going to get worse before it gets better. SAVE! SAVE! SAVE! Everything you save will be needed later. If you have a miserable job, don’t quit yet. If you do not have a job, grab what you can. It will be worse than many of us remember. None of the indicators are pointing towards anything good.

Expect an escalation in crimes like theft. Expect an increase in riots and protests in various Asian hotspots. Expect growing unrest in Europe. North American social welfare systems will get taxed to their breaking point.

Cracks will emerge that will over the next 5 years result in the changing of some national boundaries.

More of these will be playing out as the year progresses.

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