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2011 Outlook

Jan 28th, 2011
by khanserai.
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I’m a little late in my annual new years outlook blog post, but better late than never!

As you might have noticed, 2011 promises to be full of turbulence, at least the first two quarters. Economies have not recovered enough and political turbulence is rampant. This past month is a sneak preview of what else might be heading towards us:

  • Assassination of Governor in Pakistan who spoke out against absurd religious blasphemy law
  • Assassination attempt of Congresswoman Gifford in USA
  • Tunisian Jasmine Revolution removed a corrupt dictator of 20+ years. The problem with spontaneous bottom up revolutions is that there is no identified replacement leader.
  • Egypt in flames. No matter how this ends, there will be many people who will be hurt/killed/murdered/arrested/tortured by the end of it.
  • Yemen heating up. Their leader has been in power for more than 30 years and the population has been protesting to remove the president…
  • Jordan has been seeing protests for 3 weeks running demanding the removal of the prime minister
  • Algerian protests have resulted in a potential reshuffling of its Cabinet
  • Haiti still a mess after 1 year. Reconstruction has not happened in any real way, cholera is rampant and the current ruling party does not want to admit defeat in the flawed elections. Baby Doc is back (and arrested) and Aristide would like to come back too!
  • Southern Sudan will most likely split away from the North (referendum results are not official yet) but what happens after when the refugees stream in and country has to be run?
  • Terrorist attack on Moscow airport in Russia
  • And of course the near weekly suicide attacks on innocent civilians continue in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan

Is there anything to look forward to? Not really in the next 6 months. Hold tight to your sanity, your money, stand up for justice, be part of the solution against violent extremism and figure out how you will participate on the political front. As Martin Niemoller famously said:

First they came for the communists,
and I didn’t speak out because I wasn’t a communist.
Then they came for the trade unionists,
and I didn’t speak out because I wasn’t a trade unionist.
Then they came for the Jews,
and I didn’t speak out because I wasn’t a Jew.
Then they came for me
and there was no one left to speak out for me.

Let’s see what happens after!

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Strategic Communication with the Muslim Community

Aug 31st, 2009
by khanserai.
1 comment

Strategic communication recently made the news because of a column Admiral Mullen, Chairman of the US Joint Chief of Staff wrote for the Joint Forces Quarterly. His basic point was that by making it an organizing item, strategic communication has become a goal in itself, rather than being a process to enable the larger objectives. Lacking credibility and trust, and by having double standards between words and actions, leaves the US in a position where it is not effective. As he states:

The Muslim community is a subtle world we don’t fully—and don’t always attempt to—understand.

In a similar vein, Beth Noveck, the Deputy Chief Technology Officer from the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy gave the keynote address at a United States Institute of Peace event “Smart Tools for Smart Power.” She highlighted the Obama administration goal of renewing the US relationship with Muslim communities, and asked the question of how serious gaming or any other technologies can be used for achieving the purpose (and several others).

There seems to be a general and open acknowledgement in the Obama administration that actions speak louder than words, and the US needs new actions (and policy) to engage with Muslim communities. There also seems to be a void that needs to be filled regarding “what should we do about it?”

How can credibility be built without resorting to propaganda and patronizing? How will a culture of respect and dialogue (that includes listening!) be established when the recent harsh memories are those of arrogance and disregard for human life? Abu Ghraib, Haditha and Guantanamo are not just news stories but the reality for many. It will be a long uphill struggle for hearts and minds requiring a commitment that stretches beyond four year presidential terms.

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Irony in Politics: John Yettaw is Released

Aug 15th, 2009
by khanserai.
3 comments

Senator Jim Webb of Virginia went to Myanmar (not officially representing the US) and secured the release of John Yettaw- the man who was sentenced to 7 years for violating Aung San Suu Kyi’s house arrest terms.

The irony is that Aung San Suu Kyi has not been released, but the American who swam across a lake to tell Suu Kyi that he had a dream she was being assassinated (he actually testified to this during his trial) is the one who will get off scot free.

Senator Webb also met with General Than Shwe (head of the military junta) and with Suu Kyi. Clearly it is a better policy to engage Mynamar rather than isolate them; it is unfortunate however that it has taken so long for the US administration to realize that they will have more influence if they build ties.

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Should Liberty be the Price of Safety in Saudi Arabia?

Aug 13th, 2009
by khanserai.
2 comments

Saudi Arabia takes national security very seriously. In 2003, after Al-Qaeda affiliates launched three successful attacks on expatriate compounds and several failed ones on Saudi government facilities, the country cracked down very hard on militants, suspected militants, political activists, dissidents, supporters and basically anyone it wanted to.

The Human Rights Watch recently issued a report claiming that 9000 people were detained, of which 2000-4000 are still in jail. Held without trial, sent to rehabilitation camps and in a few cases actually charged and tried in secret, the process has been mostly opaque and violated both Saudi law and also international law. 991 people had been indicted by October 2008 and a further 323 by July 2009. Sentences ranged from a few months to 30 years for those that were tried.

What is known through anecdotes is that soon after the 2003 attacks there were huge crackdowns on faculty at various Islamic universities in the Kingdom. Professors and students disappeared and the curriculum/language has changed to include “moderation”. Officially, “there is no place for extremism in Islamic University.” Additionally, all imams in mosques around the country have to be Saudi and approved by the government; they are monitored to ensure that they are not teaching hatred (some 3200 have been removed over the past 5 years).

Do national security concerns give nations the right to violate human rights? Clearly Saudi Arabia and USA are birds of a feather in this regard (let us not forget Guantanamo Bay). It is interesting that the American founding fathers certainly did not think so:

"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
-Benjamin Franklin, "Pennsylvania Assembly: Reply to the Governor", November 11, 1755

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A Tale of Extreme Journalism in North Korea

Aug 4th, 2009
by khanserai.
3 comments

Yesterday’s post was about the three American hikers/journalists/tourists that wandered into Iran. Today is a new day with (almost) the same story being repeated, except this involves two American journalists who wandered illegally into North Korea, another country with which the US does not have diplomatic ties.

Sentenced to 12 years of hard labor, the women were pardoned today when Bill Clinton flew over to North Korea and met with Dear Leader Kim Jong Il (yes, he is indeed alive and there are pictures with President Clinton to prove it). Their release merely required an informal private visit by a previous president of the USA after 4 5 months of captivity, including 1 month of hard labor.

Who do you think will have to fly to Tehran to get the three Americans out of there? It cannot be Secretary of State Hillary Clinton as she is the highest ranking diplomat and you really do not want to use that card with a nation with which you do not have diplomatic ties. Maybe Bill Clinton can make a short hop on his way back from North Korea?

Let’s see which story of “Extreme Journalism” makes the headlines tomorrow. Gone are the days when journalists reported the news. These days they ARE the news.

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2009 Gloom & Doom Update: Suicide Rates on the Rise

Feb 27th, 2009
by khanserai.
9 comments

One of the side effects of the worsening global economy and unemployment is the increase in suicides and suicide attempts. The numbers of cases (high profile and of “normal people“) being reported has increased significantly.

Asian economies like South Korea, Japan and Hong Kong have all reported increases and are planning for more. South Korea and Japan are installing blockades for railway tracks so people do not jump in front of trains. Hong Kong has increased the numbers of operators for its suicide hotlines.

The US is also experiencing an increase in calls to suicide hotlines in places like New York,  Tampa, Dallas, Washington DC metro area and California. What is far more worrying is the increase in suicide attempts at universities like the University of California, Santa Barbara. Europe is not spared either with countries like Serbia reporting the highest suicide rates in Europe and 55% of the population shows signs of depression.

The global economy is going to get worse over the upcoming months. If anyone you know is showing signs of depression make sure they get help.

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